Credible Estimates and Open Science
Somewhere on social media I encountered the recent story that the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, (a large, avowedly centrist think tank created by Tony Blair), put out a report estimating the potential impact of AI on jobs in the public service, but that ironically, they arrived at their estimates by basically just asking GPT-4. While this does have a certain kind of poetry to it, it’s not exactly what we think of as a reputable methodology.1